Nigeria’s 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign has been chaotic. Instead of coasting through the group, based on paper ratings, the Super Eagles have left fans on edge, calculators in hand, and hope hanging by a thread.
For a nation that has missed only two World Cup finals since its debut in 1994, the prospect of back-to-back absences stare in the face and would be unprecedented.
Yet with two games left, that nightmare remains a possibility.
How We Got Here
After seven qualification matches, the Super Eagles have collected just 11 points—an underwhelming tally from two wins, five draws, and one defeat. That inconsistency has left Nigeria trailing South Africa and Benin Republic, who originally sat on 17 and 14 points respectively.
But FIFA’s decision to dock South Africa three points and three goals for fielding an ineligible player has shifted the dynamics.
Bafana Bafana now drop to 14 points, level with Benin, and only three points ahead of Nigeria. Suddenly, the group is wide open again.
Nigeria’s Equation: Win or Bust
The Super Eagles’ task is straightforward on paper: win their final two fixtures—away to Lesotho and at home to Benin Republic.
Anything less, and qualification is gone.
Yet even maximum points may not be enough. Nigeria’s fate also depends on how South Africa and Benin fare in their remaining games.
Scenario One: If South Africa Stay Perfect
Should South Africa defeat Zimbabwe and Lesotho, they will finish on 20 points.
This is beyond Nigeria’s reach even if the Eagles win both matches.
South Africa: 20 points
Nigeria: 17 points
Benin Republic: 17 points (assuming a win over Lesotho but loss to Nigeria)
In this case, Nigeria would have to rely on the runners-up table for a possible playoff berth only if Nigeria stayed on second with superior goal difference.
A very tough route with Gabon already on unassailable 19 points, a guaranteed spot in the play off for Gabon already.
The remaining three spots will boils down to a seven team race as Madagascar, Dr Dr Congo are on 16 points, Cameroon, Namibia and Uganda are already on 15 points with two matches to go.
Scenario Two: South Africa Slip, Nigeria Capitalize
If South Africa drop points in either of their last two matches and Nigeria beat Benin Republic, a three-way tie on 17 points could unfold.
South Africa: 17 points (with one slip)
Benin Republic: 17 points (losing to Nigeria)
Nigeria: 17 points (winning both)
This scenario would send the group to goal difference, where Nigeria’s slim margins in earlier draws could haunt them. Winning is not enough, they must win big.
The Dream Scenario
Nigeria’s cleanest route is if both South Africa and Benin falter badly, taking no more than two points each from their final two games.
That would leave Nigeria top with 17 points and their rivals stuck on 16 points.
It’s unlikely, but football thrives on the improbable.
Final Word
Nigeria’s qualification hopes are alive, but only just.
Victory in their last two matches is non-negotiable, while a superior goal difference could prove decisive in the event of a tie.
FIFA’s sanction on South Africa has given the Super Eagles a lifeline.
Whether they seize it will depend not only on their ability to finish strong but also on whether South Africa and Benin stumble when it matters most.
